Dricus du Plessis remains a clear betting favorite over Kamaru Usman for their UFC Fight Night 281 middleweight main event on July 18 at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The market has tightened since the first widely reported numbers, cutting the price on du Plessis while improving the return available on Usman.
The opening line listed du Plessis at -240 and Usman at +205. That meant a bettor would have needed to risk $240 to win $100 on du Plessis, while a $100 Usman wager would have returned $205 in profit with 1xbet giriş güncel if the former welterweight champion won. Early numbers reported after the matchup announcement were even wider.
Dricus du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman: Opening Odds, Current Prices and Line Movement
Du Plessis was initially priced around -350, with Usman at +285, putting the South African in the role of a sizeable favourite from the start. The move from that early range toward the -240 to -260 area suggests money has come in on Usman, or at least that oddsmakers have adjusted for a competitive matchup between former champions.
Current consensus pricing has du Plessis at about -260, with Usman at +220. Those odds carry implied win probabilities of roughly 70 percent for du Plessis and 30 percent for Usman. In decimal terms, the line sits near 1.38 for du Plessis and 3.20 for Usman.
The price reflects the fight taking place at middleweight, age, and losing streak of Usman. Du Plessis has competed throughout his UFC title run at middleweight, including holding the title. The Nigerian-American Usman built his championship career at welterweight and is returning to 185 pounds after his previous middleweight bout, a decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev in 2023. Du Plessis last fought in August 2025, when he lost the middleweight title to Chimaev, while Usman’s most recent outing was a decision victory over Joaquin Buckley at welterweight in June 2025.
There is also a seven-year age gap with du Plessis is 32 and the historic Usman is 39. That gap, combined with du Plessis’ experience at 185 pounds, has kept the favourite below plus money throughout the market cycle. Still, Usman’s wrestling background gives bettors a reason to consider the underdog price, particularly after Chimaev controlled du Plessis with grappling for long stretches in their title fight.
The betting market still gives du Plessis the edge, though the reduced number makes him less of a straightforward proposition than he was at the opening price. Usman enters with questions around his move back to middleweight and the mileage from a long career, but his wrestling offers a route to changing the fight’s shape over 25 minutes. With the line moving toward the challenger, late weigh-in results and any final movement on fight week could decide whether du Plessis closes as a firm favourite or whether Usman attracts further support as the underdog.
