Magomed Ankalaev enters UFC Abu Dhabi as a sizable favorite on July 25 over short-notice replacement Bogdan Guskov, and the five-round format leans toward the Russian former champion. The betting pick is Ankalaev by unanimous decision, with late TKO a live alternative if Guskov fades after an aggressive start.
The former champion Ankalaev is listed around -460 on the moneyline, while Guskov sits at +360. In US odds, a $460 wager on Ankalaev would return $100 in profit, while a $100 Guskov bet would return $360 if the underdog pulls it off. The implied probabilities sit near 80 percent for Ankalaev and 20 percent for Guskov. For fans in states without legal sports betting, fight night entertainment can still come with a gaming twist through the BigPirate Sweepstakes Casino, which offers casino-style games playable for free with sweepstakes prizes.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Bogdan Guskov Odds
Ankalaev owns a 20-2 record and has competed in title-level, five-round settings, while Guskov is taking his first UFC main event after replacing Khalil Rountree Jr. less than two weeks before the July 25 bout at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.
The 34-year-old defeated Alex Pereira by five-round unanimous decision to win the UFC light heavyweight title at UFC 313, and he later added a decision over Aleksandar Rakic. His résumé has more proven rounds against elite opposition than Guskov’s.
Ankalaev’s latest appearance was a first-round TKO loss to Alex Pereira in their UFC 320 rematch last October, ending the title reign he began by beating Pereira. Before that, he outpointed Aleksandar Rakic and stopped Johnny Walker, so a measured win over Guskov would settle him after the Pereira setback and leave him in position to pursue another elite opponent or a return shot at the belt.
Guskov last fought Jan Blachowicz to a majority draw at UFC 323 in December, following a July 2025 knockout of Nikita Krylov, a guillotine finish of Billy Elekana and a second-round stoppage of Ryan Spann. Ranked No. 10, Guskov has a real chance to crash the top tier by beating a former champion and current No. 2 contender in a five-round main event would make it hard for the UFC to book him outside the top-five conversation next.
Guskov is a dangerous replacement because he does not need a busy scorecard to change the night. The Uzbek fighter has 18 wins, every one via finish, including 13 first-round stoppages; his UFC wins include knockout victories over Zac Pauga and Ryan Spann, plus a guillotine submission of Billy Elekana.
The concern is the jump in opponent and duration. Guskov has only one UFC fight that reached the second round, while Ankalaev has repeatedly handled 25-minute pacing and tactical fights. Guskov’s best chance is to make the opening 10 minutes messy, throw hard to the body and head, and catch Ankalaev during an exchange before the favorite can establish his rhythm.
Back Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. Guskov has enough power to make the first round uncomfortable, but Ankalaev should use his cleaner defense, feints, kicking game and occasional wrestling to bank rounds, limit big exchanges, and take over as the replacement fighter’s pace drops. A Guskov knockout is the upset scenario. Ankalaev by decision is the more likely result.
