Liu Ce meets Levi Rodrigues Jr. in a light heavyweight bout on the UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song main card on August 29 at Shanghai’s SPD Bank Oriental Sports Center. The matchup changed late after Junior Tafa withdrew for undisclosed reasons, leaving Rodrigues Jr. to take the assignment on five days’ notice.
Liu Ce enters UFC Shanghai as a modest betting favorite over Levi Rodrigues Jr., with the market leaning toward the Chinese kickboxer’s size, reach and finishing record. The short-notice opponent change adds volatility, though, making this a fight where the safest angle may be a small Liu moneyline play rather than chasing a heavy stake.
The latest odds with Azerbaijan casino sites list Liu around -185 to -205, with Rodrigues Jr. priced between +155 and +170. That translates to an implied chance of roughly 65% for Liu at -185 while Rodrigues sits in clear underdog territory. The line opened as a pick’em and moved toward Liu, indicating early market support for the home-country debutant in Shanghai, China.
Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. Odds, Picks and Betting Preview for UFC Shanghai
Liu is 3-1 in professional MMA, with each of his wins ending inside the distance. His latest outing came in May, when he stopped Igor Barabanov late in the first round with leg kicks and punches. The 29-year-old has much more experience under kickboxing rules: an 18-3 record with 14 knockout or TKO wins, plus the 2023 K-1 Openweight Grand Prix title and the K-1 cruiserweight championship.
That background gives Liu a familiar path to victory. At 6-foot-5 with a listed 78-inch reach, he has the frame to occupy space and work from kicking range. His record includes several leg-kick stoppages, and his right hand has featured in several K-1 finishes. Rodrigues needs to avoid letting Liu settle at range, where low kicks and straight shots can turn a close matchup into a one-way fight quickly.
Rodrigues Jr. brings a 5-1 MMA record, although his UFC introduction did not go to plan. He lost by second-round TKO to Felipe Franco in July after entering that bout as the favorite. Before reaching the UFC, Rodrigues won on Dana White’s Contender Series in October, but a Nevada Athletic Commission suspension related to a positive test for nandrolone metabolites delayed his first official UFC appearance.
There is also a simple scheduling factor. Rodrigues is returning just six weeks after the Franco loss and accepted this particular booking on short notice, then travels to Shanghai to face a local fighter. That does not decide the bout, but it strengthens the case for treating his plus-money price as a volatility play rather than assuming he arrives with a full camp tailored to Liu.
Liu Ce moneyline at -185 or better is the cleanest pick. The number has already moved from the opening pick’em range, so bettors should avoid laying a much steeper price if it continues to rise. Liu has the larger body of striking work, a substantial physical frame and a matchup that should let him fight long if he stays composed. Rodrigues by knockout is the underdog sprinkle for those fading Liu’s transition from elite kickboxing to MMA.
