The Old College Try | Baseball Prospectus

By now, you’ve probably seen or heard that MLB pitched an upended amateur-draft system in the latest round of CBA negotiations:

“Our proposal is designed to build on that momentum to benefit the game at the college, Minor League and Major League levels. By creating a Draft system centered around college-aged players and making most college players eligible one year earlier, more players will benefit from both a college education and an elite development environment while reaching professional baseball – and ultimately the Major Leagues – more quickly.”

Teams have spent decades trying to calculate the perfect formula for an amateur player’s future value, but there isn’t an exact science to scouting. Teams prioritize different tools and traits. Under Craig Breslow’s tenure, the Red Sox have a penchant for big, beefy SEC pitchers. The Dodgers like velocity. The Guardians look for hitters with strong plate discipline. The Brewers value scrappy athleticism.

Unsurprisingly, the MLB Players Association quickly shot down the proposal, so we won’t see the high schoolers removed from the draft in the future. Still, the league’s egregious proposal stuck with me. Do high school and college picks reach the majors at the same rate? Does one group produce more WARP?

Several studies have compared the value of high school versus college draft picks, but some of them veer towards the older side. Rany Jazayerli wrote a 12-part series on the draft during the George W. Bush administration (2006). Richard T. Karcher conducted a 2017 study on 1996 through 2011 draft picks. I wanted to look at more recent draft classes, so I pulled from the first four rounds of the 2015 through 2025 drafts. I stopped at the fourth round because most bonus pool money is among the first 100 picks. After removing players who were drafted twice, there are 1,473.

To start, I looked at the draft rate by background and position. Teams are selecting more college position players than pitchers, which made me pause. I figured teams would be more apt to draft pitchers, but high school arm selections show the opposite trend. After the 2017 draft, prep arms plummeted from 24 to 14 in 2019. They’ve plateaued since then, hovering in the mid-teens. That coincided with a brief period (2020-21) where college pitchers significantly outpaced position players.

Unlike football or hockey, where a draft pick quickly cracks the roster, baseball prospects take the longest time to develop. (I excluded the 2025 draft class from debut rates and WARP contributions because none of the picks have reached the majors yet.) Pitchers recorded the biggest debut gap. College pitchers posted a 51.9% debut rate. High schoolers came in almost 17 points lower, at 35.1%. Position players were closer. College debuted at 48.8%, whereas high schoolers debuted at 44.5%.

The college advantage shrinks after a player reaches the majors. Prep bats averaged 2.52 bWARP, just a kitten’s whisker above college hitters at 2.36. Pitchers ran the opposite direction. College arms averaged 1.71 and high schoolers averaged 1.50. These numbers are fluid, as more players debut. I’d be interested in revisiting these numbers in a year or two as more players from the 2023-25 draft accrue playing time.

The best college position player drafted over the last decade is Alex Bregman. Selected from Louisiana State University as the second overall pick of the 2015 draft, Bregman has generated 30.43 bWARP across 11 seasons. The best prep bat is Bobby Witt Jr. from Colleyville Heritage High School. As the second overall pick in the 2019 draft, he’s amassed 23.39 WARP in four seasons. Bregman averaged 3.3 bWARP through his first four seasons while Witt Jr. is at 5.84.  I could see him eclipsing Bregman in a year or two. Witt Jr. (26) has Father Time on his side. Plus, he’s a greater threat on the basepaths and can rival Bregman defensively. Bregman’s pull-heavy swing also doesn’t benefit at Wrigley Field, compared to Daikin or Fenway Park. He’s slashing .240/.340/.341 with a 104 DRC+ in 391 plate appearances and 85 games this year.

Corbin Burnes (30) and Jesus Luzardo (28), the top college (22.68 pWARP) and high school arms (13.58 pWARP), are only two years apart in age but have a slightly larger gap of 9.1 pWARP. Burnes was a fourth-round pick (111th overall) in the 2016 draft from Saint Mary’s College of California. Luzardo was the 94th pick that same year, 17 picks ahead of Burnes, out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas in Florida. Since high school picks don’t throw an extra two to four years in college, some believe that they have less mileage on their arms compared to college picks. Burnes tossed 132 2/3 innings in college and underwent Tommy John Surgery in June 2025. Luzardo had his in March 2016, almost three months before the draft. Despite their backgrounds, both pitchers dealt with elbow injuries.

Talent is everywhere. It shows up at an all-boys Catholic high school in Cincinnati or an under-the-radar junior college in Missouri. The league’s proposal would’ve delayed prep standouts like Hunter Greene and Matt Olson. MLB claims college develops players better, but the leading Rookie of the Year candidates took different paths to the majors. In the American League, Kevin McGonigle (131 DRC+) signed with the Tigers out of Monsignor Bonner High School. In the National League, JJ Wetherholt (117 DRC+) was selected by the Cardinals from West Virginia University. Neither player was forced into pro ball. They chose it, but MLB’s proposal would decide for them.