Last season, I shared four of my favorite win total best bets in this space: The Chargers and Bears to go over and the Lions and Raiders to stay under. We went a perfect 4-0. This year, I’m raising the stakes by doubling down with my top win total over/under pick in every division along with a bonus pick in each conference. Let’s start building our futures portfolio in the NFC. And don’t miss my “Worst to First” article, now live on SportsLine.
NFL win-total forecasts start with an in-depth roster evaluation, highlighting star power, depth, and strength on both the offensive and defensive lines. Schedule difficulty is assessed using projected opponent win totals, while coaching changes, draft classes, team chemistry and other intangibles are also considered. Statistical modeling acts as the foundation for the projections, but injury volatility — which often balances out over time — is also accounted for. Betting lines are provided by DraftKings, and each pick is assigned a 5-out-of-5 confidence rating.
Below, Hochman, who has gone 73-60-3 in his NFL spread picks for SportsLine (+1189) over the past five seasons, will share his top season-win total plays for the 2026 NFL season.
