Many expect Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning to be pick No. 1 in the 2027 NFL Draft (scheduled April 29-May 1 in Washington), but let’s tap the brakes on the hype.
Manning may not be the most pro-ready QB in a stacked class that features Dante Moore (Oregon Ducks), Julian Sayin (Ohio State Buckeyes) and others. A new statistical model backs that claim.
New statistical model sparks questions about Arch Manning’s pro-readiness
On Monday, CBS Sports’ Ryan Wilson shared his new model — first-round readiness or FRED — to compare QB prospects in the 2027 class to other notable passers drafted since 2015. Ignore the silly name.
The model uses passing efficiency, touchdown pass and interception rates, QBR, experience and a QB’s best three- to five-game stretches to calculate preseason and postseason scores. Wilson concentrated on the preseason scores. A mark of 50 or above is considered the threshold for first-round QBs. Wilson noted 22 QBs in the sample reached a score of 50 before their final collegiate season; all became first-round picks.
So, how does Manning fare against these recent and current QBs? Unfavorably. See how his score compares to other notable QBs below. (Note: we included Sayin, as he has the top mark in the 2027 class.)
Manning’s shockingly low score left Wilson flummoxed. He noted that he ranks him as his preseason QB2 behind Moore (19.2 FRED score).
His accuracy problems in 2025 must be skewing his score. Despite throwing 26 touchdowns in 13 games, Manning isn’t what you’d call a precise passer. He ranked 13th among 15 eligible SEC QBs in completion percentage (248-of-404 attempts, 61.4 percent, below average) and completed fewer than 48.3 percent of his passes in three games.
The accuracy problems may carry over into 2026. After the Longhorns’ second scrimmage, head coach Steve Sarkisian said Manning was a “little bit inefficient” at the start of the session.
It wasn’t just that one session where Manning didn’t dominate. An area scout recently told Ryan Roberts of A to Z Sports the QB looked “underwhelming” in the practice he attended. They noted they remain a fan of the Texas star and believe in his upside.
Now, this doesn’t mean Manning won’t be a first-rounder. Tennessee Titans QB Cam Ward (2025 pick No. 1), for example, had a FRED score of 6.8 entering the 2024 season. By the end of the year, the former Miami Hurricanes standout’s number had improved to 49.3.
Manning, the nephew of Super Bowl champions Peyton and Eli and grandson of former New Orleans Saints star Archie, should be capable of making the same strides Ward did. That said, he needs time, which is one reason The Ringer’s Todd McShay isn’t ruling out the possibility the fourth-year junior opts to declare for the 2028 draft instead. Sarkisian also hinted at that in June.
Many fans want Arch Manning to carry on his family legacy, but let him do so at his own pace. He may not yet be ready to become a No. 1 pick like his uncles or a No. 2 pick like his grandfather.
