Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense rebound from a three-year drought? Five keys to a turnaround

Beyond the obvious “how healthy is Patrick Mahomes?” question surrounding the Chiefs this year, you have to wonder: when will Mahomes and the offense will regain top form? Without a rebound on that side of the ball it’s hard to imagine Kansas City bouncing back from last year’s disappointing 6-11 season.

Kansas City isn’t just in a slump. The Chiefs’ offense is in a drought. They are lost in the wilderness. They rank just 19th in the NFL in scoring offense in the past three seasons. Some offensive measures have them ranked higher but still, 19th in points in just a staggering ranking for a team with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. 

The Chiefs had the top-scoring offense in the league during Mahomes’ first five seasons as a full-time starter from 2018-22. They became the third franchise in NFL history to average over 30 points per game in a five-year stretch, along with the 1940s-50s Rams and the 2000s Patriots. Kansas City’s offense has crashed ever since with the sudden lack of explosive plays at the forefront of its issues. 

Chiefs’ NFL ranks in Mahomes era

Mahomes has evolved from a gunslinger capable of 50+ TD passes to a game manager who ranks 23rd in yards per attempt, 21st in passer rating and 11th in QB efficiency (as measured by EPA per dropback) in the past three years. 

It’s unheard of production for a superstar quarterback in recent history. We are talking about a 50-plus-game sample with below-average scoring. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were never at the controls of an offense with even a 30-plus-game stretch. 

Another way to look at it: The Chiefs have ranked 15th or worse in PPG in three straight seasons. Brady had one team that ranked that low, and it came in his 23rd and final season in 2022 with the Buccaneers.

No playmakers around Mahomes

The blame can’t be placed on Mahomes, though. He hasn’t had enough help. The Chiefs are the only team without a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver in a season in the past three seasons. Mahomes has 11,698 pass yards since 2023, the most in a three-year span in NFL history without a 1,000-yard receiver.

Most pass yards without 1K receiver – three-year span all time

The league’s two-high safety blueprint, the departure of OC Eric Bieniemy (who is now back), the trade of Tyreek Hill, unavailability of Rashee Rice, decline of Travis Kelce, underachievement of Xavier Worthy, departures of Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney have all been contributing factors to the decline of a once historic offensive juggernaut.

The biggest change is the loss of explosiveness since the Hill trade. Mahomes had an NFL-high 41 touchdown passes on deep throws (20+ air yards) from 2018-21 but he had just seven in four seasons since the trade (tied for 27th in NFL). You can see the location of Mahomes’ touchdown passes before/after the Hill trade in the chart below.

Worthy and his record-breaking 4.21 40 speed were supposed to help in that area but he’s caught 7 of 34 deep balls in two seasons, good for the second-lowest catch rate (20.6%) in the NFL among 42 players targeted 30+ times on those throws. 

The Chiefs have had a wide receiver carousel (started an NFL-high 15 different WR in past three seasons) lately with little success.

Between the offensive drought, the start of Chris Jones‘ decline and an overhauled secondary (lost three starters this offseason), Mahomes could be looking at a Brady mid-career Super Bowl drought. Brady went 10 years between his third and fourth Super Bowl win, which also coincided with a knee injury in season No. 9, like Mahomes.

Five keys to Mahomes/Chiefs rebounding

The Chiefs didn’t land any superstar wide receiver to help turn the tide but there are a few keys to a rebound:

1. Patrick Mahomes’ health

The Chiefs can’t afford for Mahomes to lose a step. The small sample size of elite mobile QBs coming off a torn ACL suggests he might. Joe Burrow and Brady bounced back quickly. Mobile QBs like Kyler Murray and Robert Griffin III did not.

Notable QBs coming off torn ACL

Mahomes has relied on his legs quite a bit in the past. He leads the NFL in passing first downs (114) and rushing first downs (60) outside the pocket in the past three seasons. As you can see in the chart below, Josh Allen is the only one who comes close to relying on his legs in both facets of the game like Mahomes.

2. Rashee Rice availability

The Chiefs need a full season of Rice, which seems like a long shot. He has had WR1 flashes but has only played 28 of 51 possible games (55%) in his career. However, his last 17 games with 30+ snaps would amount to a historic year: 120 catches, 1,377 yards receiving, 10 TD catches. If he can somehow stay on the field, he would give Kansas City the closest thing to a No. 1 WR the Chiefs have had since Hill left. 

3. Explosiveness in run game

The Chiefs made Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III the highest-paid free agent RB ever ($14.4M per year) in hopes of turning around one of the least explosive RB cores in the league. How bad was it? Walker III had more 25-yard runs in one drive in the Super Bowl (two) than Chiefs RBs had all of last season (one). Another way to look at it: Chiefs RBs had the worst explosive run rate in the NFL for a second straight season. Only 3.0% of their rushes gained 12+ yards, the fifth-worst rate by any team this century.

Walker recorded an “explosive” run (12+ yards) on 10.0% of his carries last season, the second-highest rate among 21 players with 200+ rushes last season, behind only De’Von Achane. He also had the second-highest missed-tackle rate (27.6%) among that group behind only Bijan Robinson. 

He should be the missing element for a RB group that ranked bottom five in the NFL in rush yards (1,247), yards per rush (3.7) and tackles avoided last season (47) when they were led by Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco. 

4. Eric Bieniemy impact

The Chiefs brought back Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator after they averaged a league-high 30.1 points per game in his previous tenure in that position from 2018-22. Kansas City’s personnel certainly isn’t the same as it was back then but perhaps his fiery personality and focus on the fundamentals will help the Chiefs executive at a higher level. 

5. Production of secondary

Enough about the offense! What about the defense? The Chiefs added first-round pick Mansoor Delane and former KC standout L’Jarius Sneed after losing three starters in the secondary this offseason (Trent McDuffie, Bryan Cook, Jaylen Watson). The Chiefs could start clicking on offense again, but if Steve Spagnuolo’s defense slips then a return to the Super Bowl probably won’t be in the cards.