Best-and worst-case scenarios for each NFL team, plus Brendan Sorsby landing spots and NFC West Over/Unders

Hello friends and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I’d like to start things off here by congratulating everyone because you’ve done it! You’ve made it through the 2026 NFL offseason. Yes, there are still a few teams in mandatory minicamp, but all of those teams will be done after today, which means the offseason will officially be here in just a few hours. After today, we won’t see an NFL team on the field again until mid-July. 

So what are we going to do around here for the next few weeks? I have no idea. We’ll think of something. The good news is that I DO know what we’ll be covering in today’s newsletter: We’ll be taking a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for each team, plus we have some landing spots for Brendan Sorsby. 

As always, here’s your reminder to tell your friends to sign up for the newsletter. It makes the perfect Father’s Day gift, and that’s mostly because it’s free. Alright, let’s get to the rundown.

1. Best- and worst-case scenarios for all 32 teams in 2026

As we get ready to head into the dead part of the offseason, Tyler Sullivan has decided to give us all something that we can argue about for the next six weeks: He has looked into his crystal ball to come up with the best- and worst-case scenario for each team this year. 

And trust me, there is a nightmare scenario for every team, even the good ones. For instance, the Rams are favored to win the Super Bowl this year, but if Matthew Stafford’s back gives out, then they could be in trouble. 

Let’s take a look at what Sullivan had to say about three different teams: 

BALTIMORE RAVENS

• Best-case scenario: The arrival of Jesse Minter as head coach does exactly what Ravens brass hoped it would: fix the defense. With Minter reestablishing Baltimore’s DNA on that side of the ball, the organization dominates the conference, leading to an AFC North title and the No. 1 seed. Lamar Jackson stays healthy and finally gets over the hump to win the Super Bowl.
• Worst-case scenario: Baltimore’s defense doesn’t make the strides it hoped for under Minter, with Trey Hendrickson, the team’s offseason prize to bolster the pass rush, looking like a player past his prime at age 31 and coming off a season-ending hip injury in 2025. Derrick Henry finally starts to show cracks, lowering the offense’s ceiling. That leads to the Ravens missing the playoffs for the second straight year.

DALLAS COWBOYS

• Best-case scenario: With George Pickens back on the franchise tag, Dallas continues to have one of the best one-two punches at receiver alongside CeeDee Lamb. That helps Dak Prescott keep the offense among the most prolific in the league. The biggest changes come on the defensive side of the ball. First-round rookies Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence contribute at a high level from Day 1, as do the veteran additions. The Cowboys now have a defense that can match the offense’s ceiling and get back atop the NFC East. They also finally make a deep playoff run, advancing as far as the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1995. 
• Worst-case scenario:  The defense remains a work in progress, which continues to put pressure on the offense to produce points. That’ll be more difficult in 2026 if Pickens is unhappy with his contract situation and holds out. That derails Dallas, and it misses the playoffs for the third straight year.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

• Best-case scenario: The 2026 Seahawks do what the 2014 Seahawks could not: repeat as Super Bowl champions. The key pillars of what made Seattle champions last season are still intact, so this franchise still has the ceiling to win it all. The Seahawks even found solid replacements where needed, including in the backfield, where they drafted Jadarian Price in the first round after Kenneth Walker III left in free agency. Seattle remains the class of the NFL, earning the No. 1 seed and again being the last team standing.
• Worst-case scenario: Seattle suffers a bit of a Super Bowl hangover and faces tougher sledding in 2026 with a bigger target on its back. Not only that, but the division race could easily slip through its fingers. The Rams and/or 49ers could jump the Seahawks in the standings, making a path to the playoffs more challenging and potentially forcing them to go on the road to get back to the Super Bowl.

Remember, Sullivan did this for all 32 teams, so please make sure to clear at least 45 minutes from your schedule today and go here so you can read his entire story. 

2. Brendan Sorsby landing spots: Where QB could end up going in the supplemental draft

The NFL’s supplemental draft is usually an afterthought during the offseason, but this year the event is going to be taking center stage in July and that’s all thanks to Brendan Sorsby. The Texas Tech quarterback announced on Monday that he’s going to enter the supplemental draft instead of fighting the NCAA in court to keep his college eligibility alive. 

The draft is expected to be held next month and at that point, any team will be free to select Sorsby. Although Sorsby will be entering the draft with plenty of red flags, the NFL is a forgiving league and most teams will generally be willing to take a risk on a player if that player can help them win. With that in mind, Josh Edwards came up with eight possible landing spots for the quarterback and we’re going to check out three teams that made the list. 

• Cardinals. Arizona retained Jacoby Brissett, signed Gardner Minshew II and drafted Carson Beck in the third-round. Brissett is unhappy with his contract and wants an adjustment as the anticipated starter entering the 2026 season. If the Cardinals are fine taking their lumps this season without Brissett, what is to stop them from embracing a competition between Sorsby and Beck to usher in the Mike LaFleur era?
• Panthers. If the Panthers come to the conclusion that Bryce Young’s contributions are not worth his contract demands, then they could part ways as Cleveland once did with Baker Mayfield.
• Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield is entering the final year of his current contract with the Buccaneers. The former No. 1 overall selection has been in this position before. Cleveland was not ready to commit top of the market money to him and he was ultimately dealt as the team pivoted to Deshaun Watson. Head coach Todd Bowles has been adamant in his support of Mayfield as the franchise’s starting quarterback, but Bowles, himself, may be entering his last with the organization. Sorsby could be Tampa’s off-ramp to Mayfield.  

You can check out Josh’s full list of possible landing spots for Sorsby here (Josh also has a good explainer of how the supplemental draft works, so be sure to check out his story). During an interview this week, Sorsby’s agent said that 26 teams contacted him after news came out that the QB would be entering the supplemental draft, so he could being taken in an early round.

If you’re wondering whether Sorsby will face a suspension once he gets to the NFL, I covered that topic here, and the short answer is it could go either way at this point. Sorsby is expected to hold a pro day on July 10 and then the supplemental draft will be held at some point shortly after that. 

3. Bust alert: Players running out of time to prove themselves

Every year is a prove-it year in the NFL, but for some players, they just need to prove that they can still play at all. Tyler Sullivan went through and came up with a list of several players who are in dire need of a big year. 

• Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy is entering his third season in the NFL and very well could’ve already played his last meaningful down for the Vikings after being the 10th overall pick in 2024. The decision last season to go with McCarthy over Sam Darnold — who won 14 games for the club in 2024 — blew up in the Vikings’ face. They missed the playoffs with McCarthy ranking as arguably the worst starter in the NFL, while Darnold went on to win a Super Bowl with the Seahawks.
• Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. Thomas was otherworldly during his rookie season, setting franchise rookie records in receptions (87), receiving yards (1,282) and receiving touchdowns (10) in 2024. However, the first-rounder out of LSU endured a sophomore slump in 2025, with his numbers dipping across the board. Moreover, Jaguars receivers Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers seemingly leapfrogged him for targets. That’s not even mentioning Travis Hunter’s role in the passing game. Thomas enters 2026 set to either re-establish himself as a superstar wideout or reveal that 2024 was a flash in the pan. 
• Bills WR Keon Coleman. After logging 556 yards and averaging 19.2 yards per catch as a rookie, Coleman’s numbers dropped in Year 2. To make matters worse, following the firing of Sean McDermott, owner Terry Pegula effectively blamed the coaching staff for the selection instead of GM Brandon Beane. While that initially felt like the final nail in Coleman’s coffin in Buffalo, he remains with the team entering what is almost certainly a make-or-break campaign.

There are a total of eight players on the list, including one surprise name — a QB in the AFC South — and if you want to know who that is, you’ll have to check out Sullivan’s story here.

4. Minicamp takeaways: Observations from the final week of mandatory minicamp

As we mentioned at the top, this is the final week of mandatory minicamp before every team takes off for vacation. There were a total of 13 teams in action this week, but not every minicamp was the same. For instance, Bengals coach Zac Taylor only had his team practice once — on Tuesday — before deciding to call things off early. And then you have teams like the Cowboys, Jets and Chargers, who are all going through a normal week of minicamp and wrapping things up today. 

With that in mind, Bryan DeArdo went around the NFL to make some observations on what went down this week: 

• Bengals: Joe Burrow is oozing confidence. Burrow compared this year’s Bengals team to his 2019 LSU Tigers team that is regarded as one of the best teams in college football history. “You go back and watch what I’ve said before [the] 2019 season at LSU. I feel very similarly about this team,” Burrow said. “I’m so excited to get started and get moving. I wish we would ramp this right into training camp, so we can continue to improve because I feel like there’s so much greatness that we’re gonna be able to achieve this year.” Note: Back in 2019, Burrow said LSU would score 40, 50 or 60 points per game and they ended up averaging 48.4 points per game during a 15-0 season that ended with the Tigers winning the national title. 
• Broncos: Bo Nix says his ankle is fine. While he was limited to individual work, Nix was nonetheless back on the field and practicing with his teammates. Nix initially underwent ankle surgery shortly after the Broncos’ AFC title game loss to the Patriots and had a second procedure done in April. Nix said that he expects to be a full participant during training camp. “I could be full go right now if they wanted me to,” he said.
• Cowboys: George Pickens says he won’t cause any drama. It’s been yet another offseason of contract drama for “America’s Team.” This year, the drama has been centered around George Pickens and whether or not he will in fact play on the franchise tag. Pickens, to his credit, calmed some of the waters by ending his “holdout” (he did not participate in OTAs), signing the franchise tag and taking part in minicamp. Instead of lamenting over not getting a new deal this offseason, Pickens said that he is focused on having another big year and putting himself in position to receive a big payday next offseason.

DeArdo has some more takeaways and you can check them all out here. 

5. NFC West win totals: Rams look like the best team in a loaded division

After spending the past two weeks taking a look at win totals from around the NFL, we have finally done it, we are on to our final division: The NFC West. Please give yourself a round of applause if you read through all eight divisions. If you didn’t read through all eight divisions, you can still do that now. Here are the links to each division: 

And now, let’s get to the NFC West. Jordan Dajani is once again back to give us his best Over/Under bets for the entire division. 

Let’s check out his thoughts on the Rams and 49ers: 

Los Angeles Rams

• Odds: Over 11.5 (-115) / Under 11.5 (-105)

Dajani’s take: I can’t remember the last time I agreed with the sportsbooks on the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl. Usually, it’s the team that just won the Super Bowl or lost the Super Bowl, but this year, there’s a clear-cut favorite that didn’t make the Big Game last year. That’s the Los Angeles Rams. At 11.5, the Rams are tied with the Ravens for the highest preseason win total, but Sean McVay is 7-2 to the over and has hit the over in three straight seasons. I have the Rams getting to 12-5. 

Dajani’s lean: Over 11.5 (-115)

San Francisco 49ers

• Odds: Over 9.5 (-146) / Under 9.5 (+120)

Dajani’s take: The 49ers won double-digit games in four out of the last five seasons, so this line is interesting. We don’t give this team enough credit for what they accomplished last year. Despite San Francisco’s historically high $264 million free-agent spending deficit from players lost to those acquired in the offseason and all the injuries, the 49ers still went 12-5 and won a playoff game. Brock Purdy can take this team to the Super Bowl again if San Francisco can avoid the injury bug. The 49ers could break an NFL record with 38,105 miles traveled, as they have two international games in Australia and Mexico City. But I can’t in good faith take San Francisco to go 9-8 or worse. 

Dajani’s lean: Over 9.5 (-146)

If you want to see how Dajani feels about the Seahawks and Cardinals, you can get his take on those two teams here. 

6. Extra points: Jayden Daniels still trying to learn the Commanders’ new offense

It’s been a busy few days in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Jayden Daniels not quite comfortable in Washington’s new offense yet. The Commanders have a new offensive coordinator this year in David Blough and he’s implementing a new offense in Washington. After going through OTAs and minicamp, Jayden Daniels admitted this week that he still has some work to do when it comes to picking up the offense. “I’ve still got a long way to go,” he said, via ESPN.com. “Just learning the new offense, terminology, why we’re attacking this play, what we want to do on this play — things like that.” After a 2025 season where he missed 10 games due to injury, Daniels is looking to rebound with a strong year, but first, he’s going to have to learn the offense, so his progress will certainly be something to monitor during Commanders’ training camp. 
• Jared Verse’s final message to the Rams. Before trading Jared Verse to the Browns, the Rams let their star pass-rusher speak to the entire team one last time and he had one amazing message for his former teammates on his way out. “I told them the most important thing, ‘Make sure’ – and I’m not going to cuss – ‘Make sure you beat the Seahawks. That’s all I care about,'” Verse said, via USA Today. Verse also mentioned that he hates the Seahawks and that he has “Disdain in his heart” for them. The good news for Verse is that the Browns will be playing Seattle in 2027, so he won’t have to wait long to face the team he hates. 
• Brian Urlacher doesn’t want the Bears playing in a dome. The Bears are getting closer to building a stadium in Indiana, and if that happens, it will be a dome. Of course, even if they stay in Illinois at the Arlington Heights location, they’d also be getting a dome, and that doesn’t sit well with Bears’ legend Brian Urlacher. “I don’t like the idea of them playing in a dome anywhere,” Urlacher said on the ‘This is Football’ podcast via PFT. “You go to Soldier Field in November, December? It’s gonna suck. The weather is not gonna be good. You’re not gonna like it. And playing there, you practice in it, you get used to it, there’s some advantage to that.” Maybe Urlacher can talk the team into not building dome.