Jose Aldo sees Max Holloway as the favorite at UFC 329, but he believes Conor McGregor has a better chance in this matchup than he did when he challenged Khabib Nurmagomedov years ago. Aldo’s read is built on one central point: Holloway is active and sharp, while McGregor returns after a long stretch without a UFC fight.
Aldo, the former featherweight champion who lost to McGregor in 2015 and twice to Holloway in 2017, has rare perspective on this booking. That history gives weight to his assessment of a fight that has become one of the biggest talking points on the UFC schedule for July 11 at UFC 329.
His position is clear as he explained with Covers.com:
“Is Conor the biggest underdog since Khabib? Yes, I think so. Because nobody really knows where he’s at. Nobody can accurately predict what kind of performance he’s going to deliver. It could be a ten out of ten or a five out of ten, we simply don’t know.”
UFC 329 is scheduled for July 11, with the event set to bring McGregor and Holloway back together for a rematch more than a decade after their first meeting. This is the comeback fight for “The Notorious” since his leg break loss several years ago.
Jose Aldo picks Max Holloway over Conor McGregor, but says “that can absolutely happen”
Aldo also framed the opening stages as critical, saying McGregor could settle early, land clean and win, or fail to find range against Holloway and become hesitant. That fits the shape of the matchup because McGregor has long been most dangerous when he can dictate distance and timing in the first half of a fight.
Aldo said Holloway gets a “slight edge” because he is still competing, still in rhythm and still taking meaningful fights. That activity gap is the backbone of Aldo’s argument. He said:
“The favourite is Max Holloway. Not because he’s vastly superior, but because he’s still active. He’s fighting regularly, coming off strong performances and staying in competition mode. Conor is an unknown quantity. We haven’t seen him fight in a very long time. We don’t know where his conditioning, timing or confidence are at. That’s why I put Max one step ahead.”
Aldo’s most interesting point is the comparison to Khabib. He said that even when McGregor was in better form, he already viewed Nurmagomedov as a huge favorite, while this pairing feels more competitive because it is a striking matchup with fewer built-in style traps.
Aldo summed it up this way:
“That doesn’t mean Conor can’t go in there and knock him out. That can absolutely happen. And it wouldn’t be any disgrace for Max because Conor is still a world-class striker, with experience, power and the technical tools to win any fight.” For now, his pick is narrow rather than firm: Holloway slightly ahead, McGregor live, and the biggest question being which version of McGregor shows up on fight night.
Aldo’s comparison to Khabib comes from the style and timing of that earlier fight. When McGregor met Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229, the matchup was widely seen as difficult for him because Khabib’s wrestling and control game posed a very different kind of threat, even before the bout started. Aldo’s point is that Holloway may be favored now because he is active, but this fight is still more competitive on paper than McGregor’s meeting with Khabib, where he viewed the Dagestani as a major favorite from the outset.
