The running back market had taken an economic downturn until Christian McCaffrey signed a two-year, $38 million contract extension averaging $19 million per year with the San Francisco 49ers during the 2024 offseason. McCaffrey was already the NFL’s highest-paid running back with a four-year extension, averaging $16 million per year, which he received from the Carolina Panthers in 2020. He remained the only running back legitimately averaging more than $14 million per year under the 2024 extension.
Saquon Barkley became the league’s first $20 million running back in 2025 when he signed a two-year, $41.2 million extension with the Philadelphia Eagles. The deal had a then-record-high $36 million in fully guaranteed compensation at signing.
Derrick Henry subsequently signed a two-year, $30 million extension averaging $15 million per year with the Baltimore Ravens despite his high mileage and being 31 years old. Barring an injury, it was a certainty that Henry would easily eclipse the 2,500-career-carry mark during the 2025 season.
Three running backs landed deals for more than $14 million per year this offseason. Kenneth Walker III signed a three-year, $43 million contract worth up to $45 million through incentives with the Kansas City Chiefs as an unrestricted free agent. Breece Hall, who was kept off the open market by a $14.3 million franchise tag, signed a three-year, $43.5 million deal worth a maximum of $45.75 million through incentives to stay with the New York Jets.
De’Von Achane received a four-year, $64 million extension with $32 million in guarantees from the Miami Dolphins. Incentives make the deal worth up to $68 million. At $16 million per year, Achane is the NFL’s third-highest-paid running back.
Six running backs make more than $14 million per year. There could be as many as nine by the time the regular season starts in early September.
Jonathan Taylor could be next in line
Jonathan Taylor has entered the final year of a three-year, $42 million extension with the Indianapolis Colts, signed early in the 2023 regular season after acrimonious negotiations in which he requested a trade. He is likely looking for a new deal near the top of the running back market.
Taylor probably thinks his place in the running back salary hierarchy shouldn’t be any lower in a new deal than in 2023. For all practical purposes, Taylor was the NFL’s second-highest-paid running back. Alvin Kamara’s $15 million-per-year extension with the New Orleans Saints included a fifth new contract year worth $25 million for cosmetic purposes, artificially inflating his average yearly salary. The deal averaged $12.5 million per year through the first four new years. Doing the same thing would mean Taylor getting more than McCaffrey’s $19 million per year.
Taylor was coming off an injury-plagued 2022 season in which he rushed for a then-career-low 861 rushing yards while dealing with a terrible economic climate for running backs, when he got the $14 million-per-year deal. That isn’t the case this time around.
Taylor was selected to the Pro Bowl for the third time in his six NFL seasons in 2025. He was also named first-team All-Pro by The Sporting News, one of the three media outlets approved by the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement for honors incentives. Taylor was third in the NFL with 1,585 rushing yards last season. He led the league with 20 total touchdowns (18 rushing and two receiving).
Taylor will be a prime candidate for a franchise tag if he doesn’t sign a new deal. It will cost the Colts $18.7 million, given how the prior year’s salary provisions work with franchise tags. That’s 120% of Taylor’s $15.562 million 2026 cap number.
Gibbs and Robinson are the real market changers
Jahmyr Gibbs and/or Bijan Robinson should reset the running market when signing new deals. Both are dual-threat, former first-round running backs.
Robinson led the NFL with 2,298 yards from scrimmage (combined rushing and receiving yards) last season. It was the 12th-best single-season mark in NFL history. He also earned first-team All-Pro honors for the first time. Gibbs recorded the league’s fifth-most yards from scrimmage (1,839) in 2025. He earned Pro Bowl honors on the original ballot for the second straight year.
Since the Detroit Lions are more proactive than the Atlanta Falcons with contract extensions for first-round picks, Gibbs seems more likely to get a new deal this year. The Lions have a recent track record of signing first-round picks to early contract extensions. Offensive tackle Penei Sewell and wide receiver Jameson Williams got new deals after their third NFL seasons in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson’s extension came during the middle of his fourth year last season.
Typically, the Falcons give first-round picks new deals after their fourth NFL season. That’s what happened in recent seasons with guard Chris Lindstrom, cornerback A.J. Terrell and wide receiver Drake London. Kyle Pitts, 2021’s fifth overall pick, played out his five-year rookie contract and was designated a franchise player in February before signing a deal making him the NFL’s third-highest-paid tight end at $17.7 million per year in June.
Can the market reach $25 million per year?
Gibbs and Robinson should be looking to become the NFL’s first $25 million-per-year running backs, which would represent a dramatic market increase. Getting to that mark would be 21.36% more than Barkley’s $20.6 million per year.
Coach Dan Campbell hasn’t done the Lions any favors with his public comments about Gibbs. He said Gibbs is just scratching the surface of his talent and is an offensive weapon rather than just a runner at the NFL’s annual owners meeting in late March. Gibbs should be poised for a career year with the Lions. Campbell acknowledged in June that Gibbs will be the bell cow running back with David Montgomery’s trade to the Houston Texans in March. Gibbs’ camp will surely try to use Campbell’s comments to their advantage in contract talks.
Something Gibbs and Robinson could focus on is how first-round running backs who got new deals after three years were treated in their respective negotiations. Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott and McCaffrey became the league’s highest-paid running backs in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
Elliott’s $15 million-per-year extension equates to just over $24 million per year in the current $301.2 million salary cap environment. McCaffrey’s 2020 deal, adjusted for salary cap inflation, is little more than $24.3 million per year. Gurley’s $14.4 million per year, when factoring in the 69.98% increase in the salary cap since 2018, is nearly $24.5 million per year.
Gurley, in particular, can be viewed as a cautionary tale for big-money extensions with first-round running backs. The Rams released Gurley in 2020 following a lackluster 2019 campaign in which he rushed for 857 yards, his career low at that time, while being slowed by left knee troubles. Gurley didn’t play any of his new-contract years, since his four-year extension ran from 2020 through 2023. He made out like a bandit from the deal. Gurley was $20 million better off from the extension than playing out his rookie contract.
Another reference point is the running back market moving by an average of 11.2% the last three times a new salary benchmark was set. Barkley’s deal was 8.42% more than McCaffrey’s. McCaffrey bettered his 2020 extension by 18.63% in 2024. The 2020 extension was 6.77% more than Elliott’s contract. Applying this 11.2% increase to Barkley’s $20.6 million per year would be almost $23 million per year.
Regardless of how much Gibbs and Robinson ultimately raise the financial bar for running backs, expect the deals to have significantly more than Barkley’s $36 million fully guaranteed at signing. There’s a quirk with running back salary guarantees because of the Arizona Cardinals selecting Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Since first-round rookie contracts are fully guaranteed and strictly determined by draft position, Love’s $53 million is the most guaranteed money ever in a running back contract. His $35 million signing bonus is also a running back record. Although rookie contracts are determined by a completely different process than veteran contracts, Gibbs’ and Robinson’s representatives will try to correct the anomaly in which a completely unproven commodity leads in these contract metrics.
A $25 million-per-year running back may be a bridge too far for this year. If the Falcons stick to their usual first-round extension timetable, Robinson should be the first to $25 million per year in 2027. Conservatively, the salary cap should be at least $320 million in 2027, a 6.24% increase over the current $301.2 million. That would surely factor into Robinson’s calculus if he plays another season under his rookie contract.
