Most overrated NFL quarterbacks entering 2026: Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott among picks

Quarterbacks make the football world go round. Every NFL season possesses quarterbacks that break out to ascend to new heights, like 2025 NFL MVP runner-up Drake Maye, as well as new lows like Minnesota Vikings 2024 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy, a passer who ranked dead last in completion percentage (57.6%), touchdown-to-interception ratio (11-12) and passer rating (72.6) in 2025. 

So, which quarterbacks’ respective values are a little overinflated or underinflated entering 2026? Here is a look at some of the top selections for the most overrated and underrated quarterbacks, including the “Madden NFL 27” cover man. 

Overrated

Caleb Williams is the NFL’s biggest rollercoaster passer. The highs can be incredibly high. He helped lead the Bears back from a franchise-record 18-point deficit in a 31-27 wild-card round win over the archrival Green Bay Packers, and he helped force overtime against the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional round with a miracle, fourth-down touchdown heave. Those miracle plays, and his 3,942 yards passing to set Chicago’s single-season passing yards record, positioned him to be on the cover of “Madden NFL 27” this summer.

However, the high level of universal praise for Williams as the first Bears quarterback with a pulse since, perhaps, the pre-2010 NFC championship game Jay Cutler is a little much. The reason Chicago fell behind in both of their 2025 playoff games and lost in overtime to the Rams is because of Williams’ inefficiency. He morphed into a turnover machine in the postseason, throwing two interceptions while completing just 24 of his 48 passes (50%) in the win against the Packers before throwing three more interceptions on 23 of 42 passing (54.8%) against Los Angeles. The third interception against the Rams came in overtime and doomed the Bears to defeat. 

That extreme level of inefficiency in the postseason wasn’t an outlier. He led the NFL in 2025 with 12 games possessing a completion percentage of 60% or lower, and no other quarterback registered a double-digit number of games in that category. Cam Ward was the closest with eight such games. The Bears’ signal caller finished the 2025 regular season with a 58.1% completion percentage, the second-worst in the league among 33 qualified quarterbacks. He finished ahead of only Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy and his 57.6% figure — one that was so bad they brought in Arizona Cardinals castoff Kyler Murray to compete with their former 10th overall pick quarterback for the starting job. Williams’ fundamentals still need plenty of polishing. 

Williams’ potential is tantalizing because he clearly possesses a high ceiling thanks to phenomenal arm talent and mobility. However, the hope and buzz about Williams currently outpace the reality of his latest on-field performance last season. 

Bo Nix is an incredibly unique quarterback. He led the NFL with 612 passing attempts in 2025, but he failed to crack 4,000 yards passing, thanks to an average of 6.4 yards per attempt that ranked 28th among 33 qualified quarterbacks. That average was sandwiched in between washed versions of Aaron Rodgers (6.7 yards per pass attempt) and Kirk Cousins (also 6.4 yards per pass attempt). 

Nix’s inconsistencies helped produce sluggish victories against the Kansas City Chiefs‘ third-string quarterback, Chris Oladokun, on Christmas in Week 17 (20-13), and a 19-3 home win over the Los Angeles Chargers‘ backups. The young quarterback’s lumps directly led to Denver struggling to consistently drive the football down the field. Three of the top four teams with the most punts in the 2025 regular season — the Browns (93), Titans (78) and Raiders (74) — missed the playoffs and fired their respective head coaches. The fourth team in that group is Nix’s Broncos, with 75 punts. He benefits from a strong offensive line and a strong defense.

Add in the ankle injury, and it will be interesting to see what happens next in his career.

In Baker Mayfield’s first two seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he earned Pro Bowl nods while guiding his new franchise to back-to-back division titles. Mayfield undid all the growth from those two seasons in the second half of the 2025 season. 

After throwing 12 touchdown passes to only one interception in a 5-1 start to 2025, Mayfield cratered across the final two-thirds of the year, tossing 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions as the Buccaneers lost eight of their last 11 games to finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs completely. The end result of last season’s campaign was Mayfield producing far and away his worst season of his three with the Buccaneers. 

Entering the final year of his contract in 2026, it’s now or never for Mayfield to prove he can still be a franchise quarterback. The last two years, plus his hot start to 2025, had people thinking Mayfield was an early MVP candidate, but now it’s worth wondering whether he’s running out of steam. 

Underrated

In his first year back from a season-ending, torn hamstring injury in 2025, Dak Prescott balled out. Despite the Dallas defense ranking as the NFL’s worst scoring defense, Prescott played like a top-10 quarterback. He became just the ninth quarterback in NFL history to produce his third season with 4,500 yards passing. Prescott is now one of the NFL’s best pre-snap quarterbacks, 10 seasons into his career, as his tape is littered with pre-snap adjustments that lead to big plays through the air. 

Prescott’s reputation across the football world can sometimes be weighed down by the Cowboys of it all, thanks to owner/general manager Jerry Jones’ struggles to build a balanced roster in the salary cap era, but Dallas’ quarterback is one of the best in the league — haters be damned. 

There are only two quarterbacks with at least nine wins, 20-plus passing touchdowns and fewer than 12 interceptions in each of the last three seasons: Matthew Stafford and Jordan Love. Matt LaFleur’s offense hums thanks to Love’s deep ball accuracy and arm strength when squeezing the ball into tight windows over the middle of the field. 

In the Packers’ 31-27 playoff collapse against the Chicago Bears, Love threw for 329 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions while completing 73% of his passes (27 for 37). The narrative around Love entering 2026 would have been different had now-Brandon McManus not left seven points on the field in that game. That night, Love became just the sixth player in NFL history to throw for four touchdowns and no interceptions in a road playoff game. Had conservative game management from LaFleur and departed defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, plus a total meltdown from McManus not occurred, Love’s performance would be celebrated all offseason long. 

Despite lackluster play from his offensive line for the vast majority of the 2025 season, Love more than made do with the offensive line protection he had to work with: Green Bay’s offensive line allowed a quarterback pressure rate of 40.9% in 2025, the fourth-most in the NFL. A higher passing volume in the Packers’ offense could also lead to a change in Love’s perception. He attempted 439 passes, which ranked 19th in the NFL in 2025, but with an offense that is slightly more tilted toward the pass, this could give Love the opportunity to produce stats more in line with those of the league’s more celebrated passers.

Trevor Lawrence initially struggled to pick up Liam Coen’s offense, but once the lightbulb came on, he soared. He led the entire NFL in total touchdowns with 24 across the last eight games of the regular season, a span in which Jacksonville went a perfect 8-0 to finish 13-4 and win the AFC South. Lawrence’s 38 total touchdowns ranked as the third-most in football last season behind only the league’s last two MVP winners: Matthew Stafford (46) and Josh Allen (39). 

Across the final six games of the 2025 season, Lawrence produced an absurd 19 total touchdowns to just one turnover. That feat made him just the third player in NFL history to record 19-plus total touchdowns and one or fewer turnovers in the final six games of a season, per CBS Sports Research. The other two players to do so are 2019 Drew Brees (20 total TD to one turnover) and 2020 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (21 total touchdowns to one turnover). 

With scheme familiarity in Coen’s attack in 2026, Lawrence could solidify himself as a top-10 quarterback.