On paper, the Los Angeles Rams have arguably the best roster in the NFL. They boast the reigning MVP in Matthew Stafford, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Myles Garrett and one of the top receiving duos in the NFL with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
If there was one roster hole going into the offseason, it was at cornerback. They quickly fixed that by stealing two players from Kansas City: They made a trade for Trent McDuffie and then signed Jaylen Watson.
Basically, the Rams’ roster is absolutely stacked, and because of that, Sean McVay’s team is an overwhelming favorite to win Super Bowl LXI.
As a matter of fact, the Rams are an unprecedented favorite to win the Super Bowl this year.
Let’s check out the top five favorites (odds via FanDuel):
1. Rams (+550)
2. Bills (+1000)
3. Ravens (+1100)
4. Seahawks (+1200)
T-5. Chiefs (+1600)
T-5. Chargers (+1600)
Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, this marks just the fifth time that we’ve seen an overwhelming Super Bowl favorite like this with odds under +1000. It’s just the second time for an NFC team.
Being a heavy favorite can create crushing expectations, and sometimes it can be difficult to live up to them. If you need proof, just look at the other four teams that have gone through what the Rams are about to go through.
Here are the previous four instances where there was only one team with preseason odds under +1000 (odds via Pro Football Reference).
2003 Buccaneers
Super Bowl odds: +800
Over/under: 10.5 wins
Coming off their Super Bowl win in 2002, the Bucs were expected to make a run at another Lombardi Trophy. Their season fell apart quickly. They got off to a 2-1 start, but after a Week 4 bye, their season came crashing down. In Week 5, Tampa Bay blew a historic lead against Peyton Manning’s Colts: The Bucs led 35-14 with just four minutes left in a game they eventually lost 38-35. They dropped the Bucs to 2-2, and they eventually finished 7-9 on the season.
The Bucs were the favorites to make the Super Bowl, but in the end, they didn’t even make the playoffs. The Rams are the first NFC team in 23 years to be an overwhelming Super Bowl favorite, and as we can see here, things didn’t work out so well for the last NFC team to be in this situation.
2009 Patriots
Super Bowl odds: +450
Over/under: 11.5
Tom Brady missed the 2008 season after tearing his ACL in Week 1, but that didn’t slow down the Patriots. With Matt Cassel running the show, they won 11 games. In 2009, the Pats got their legendary QB back on the field, and when that happened, the thought was that New England was going to steamroll the competition, but that’s not exactly what happened. With Brady back in the lineup, the Patriots went just 10-6, which means they didn’t even match their win total from 2008. To make matters worse, they didn’t even make it past the opening round of the playoffs. During the wild-card round, the Pats were absolutely destroyed 33-14 by the Ravens after falling behind 24-0.
2010 Colts
Super Bowl odds: +800
Over/under: 10.5
The Patriots were the Super Bowl favorite in 2009, but they didn’t make it to the big game. Instead, it was Peyton Manning and the Colts who came out of the AFC (They lost to the saints in Super Bowl XLIV). Manning and the Colts went 14-2 in 2009, which set the stage for oddsmakers to crown them as the overwhelming Super Bowl favorite in 2010.
The Colts had sky-high expectations, and they were viewed as a heavy favorite to get back to the big game, but that didn’t happen. In Manning’s final healthy season with the team, the Colts finished 10-6, and they didn’t come close to sniffing the Super Bowl after a shocking 17-16 loss to the Jets in the wild-card round.
2018 Patriots
Super Bowl odds: +600
Over/under: 11
The 2018 Patriots were the only team that could handle the expectations that come with being an overwhelming Super Bowl favorite. Although the Patriots were viewed as the best team going into the season, it was the Chiefs who ended up earning the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, and they did that in Patrick Mahomes‘ first year as the team’s starter.
In the playoffs, the 11-5 Patriots had to travel to Kansas City for the AFC title game in what ended up being an all-time classic with New England coming out on top, 37-31, in overtime.
One of the most infamous plays from that game came when Dee Ford jumped offside with roughly a minute left to play in the fourth quarter, and the Chiefs were up 28-24. The penalty nullified a Brady interception, which set the stage for New England’s dramatic win.
In the Super Bowl, the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 to give Tom Brady and Bill Belichick their final Lombardi Trophy together.
Rams have plenty of obstacles in their path
When you’re the Super Bowl favorite, you have high expectations, but when you’re an overwhelming favorite, the expectations that come with that can crush you, and history shows that.
When you look at the four big Super Bowl favorites that came before the Rams, all four of them fell short of expectations during the regular season. Three of the four teams finished under their projected win total, while the 2018 Patriots pushed, so none of them hit the over. The Rams’ over/under has been set at 11.5, and although the over feels like a lock, history has shown that the teams perceived to be the best can sometimes stumble.
The Rams came one game short of making the Super Bowl last year, but it’s worth noting that their 2025 season nearly derailed before it even started. Stafford missed most of training camp with a back injury last season, and if that flares up on him this year, that would be a serious problem for the Rams. Stafford made it through the 2025 season unscathed, but he always seems to be thinking about his back. At the NFL Honors ceremony in February, he half-jokingly mentioned his back when he was asked how he felt about the Rams’ Week 1 game in Australia.
“Seems like a long flight,” Stafford said. “I hope my back’s not too sore afterwards, to be honest with you.”
Even if Stafford and the Rams stay healthy, getting to the Super Bowl won’t be easy. They play in one of football’s toughest divisions, which just happens to include the defending Super Bowl champs. The Seahawks won the Lombardi Trophy, but it’s the Rams who have the giant target on their back thanks to their status as the unprecedented Super Bowl favorite.
