Image credit: © Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
The Cardinals finished the 2025 season at 78-84. A record in that range says enough on its own, but it was notable for the club. They’d finished under .500 in two of the previous three years and failed to break 83 wins. They hadn’t done that since a span from 1997 to 1999; long enough that your life was drastically different, and you’d have to stop to think about how, exactly. They started to commit to rebuilding outside the Cardinals Way, offloading veterans and committing to youth and newer ideas in a way they’d been able, for an entire generation, to avoid.
The 2026 season was supposed to be more of that. They’ve stayed committed to youth, fielding the second-youngest group of hitters and the fourth-youngest group of pitchers. The club has generated much different results, though. Coming into play on Monday, they sat at 51-47, a leg up on the Marlins and Pirates for the third Wild Card spot, generating vibes that could convince you they could take it. Alec Burleson is having a career year. JJ Wetherholt has taken well to the major leagues, if not stormed into them. Dustin May has bounced back into being a useful pitcher and Jordan Walker has made the absolute most of what felt like a last chance. And Kyle Leahy, barely 29 and the oldest guy in the rotation, might have taken a step forward, too.
It is easiest to understand by splitting his season into two parts. Across his first 13 starts he’d pitched his way into a corner. A 4.64 ERA sat almost a half-run worse than league average. His single-digit K-BB rate didn’t provide any of the hope that can wriggle through peripherals. It wasn’t underperformance. In the five starts after that—which doesn’t include last night’s six-inning, one-run performance against the Angels—he worked to a 1.42 ERA and a 15.5% K-BB rate. That second number doesn’t exactly support the first, but other ERA indicators park him in similar territory. He’d crossed the threshold from thoroughly below average to slightly above. It was clear something was different.
