College football’s postseason picture is already taking shape — at least scribbled on my in-house whiteboard with win-loss projections for 138 FBS teams across 10 conferences.
This is my favorite time of the year, with the 2026 season approaching, an opportunity to project all 43 bowl games extremely early, including the matchups that will define the College Football Playoff. The 12-team field has created a greater margin for error among national championship contenders, but preseason expectations still carry weight when separating the sport’s elite from everyone else.
Ohio State, Oregon and Notre Dame headline the early title conversation, while several dark-horse threats are positioned to crash the party. Beyond the playoff, these projections forecast landing spots for every bowl-eligible team and spotlight potential clashes between programs from across the Power Four and Group of Six.
College football rankings: Ohio State tops Oregon as SEC teams shoot up in Preseason CBS Sports 138
Chip Patterson
There will be surprise contenders, disappointing preseason favorites and inevitable postseason chaos, but this is our best August look at how college football’s road to the national championship could unfold during bowl season this winter.
AP poll history suggests there’s almost always a preseason top-10 team that finishes the season unranked. The hard part is predicting which team it will be this fall. I’m projecting seven of the preseason top 10 to make the playoff, with a couple of SEC teams not in this early bracket in the middle of a three-loss logjam in the league standings.
Clemson (2024) and Alabama (2025) are the only teams that have lost three games prior to the selection committee’s final vote and still received a CFP berth. Alabama got there last season after its third loss came in the conference title game, while Clemson was awarded a spot as an auto-qualifier after winning the ACC.
For now, until we see further expansion, college football’s 12-team playoff format includes five automatic bids for the highest-ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids determined by the selection committee’s final top 12.
College Football Playoff projections
First round
| Date | Location | Projection | Winner faces |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Dec. 18, 2026 |
Ohio Stadium |
(9) LSU at (8) Ohio State | No. 1 seed |
|
Dec. 19, 2026 |
Memorial Stadium |
(10) BYU at (7) Indiana | No. 2 seed |
|
Dec. 19, 2026 |
Jones AT&T Stadium |
(11) SMU at (6) Texas Tech | No. 3 seed |
|
Dec. 19, 2026 |
DKR-Texas Stadium |
(12) UNLV at (5) Texas | No. 4 seed |
Projected final records for playoff teams
- Miami (13-0)*
- Oregon (12-1)*
- Georgia (12-1)*
- Notre Dame (11-1)
- Texas (11-2)
- Texas Tech (12-1)*
- Indiana (10-2)
- Ohio State (10-3)
- LSU (10-2)
- BYU (11-2)
- SMU (11-2)
- UNLV (12-1)*
*denotes projected conference champion
I was the only voter to rank Miami No. 1 in our CBS Sports 138 rankings earlier this summer, and only one AP voter agreed in the preseason poll. Planting my flag in Coral Gables in this preseason projection was a no-brainer for me, considering who the Hurricanes signed in the transfer portal, the schedule’s favorability, and staff continuity under Mario Cristobal.
This is only one man’s educated guess, but Miami at Notre Dame at Nov. 7 will be one of college football’s regular-season games of the year and will determine which team is unbeaten and ranked No. 1 coming down the stretch.
I battled inner turmoil with the squads seeded in the 4-6 range of this projection, which was honestly the toughest stretch to call. We can’t assume Texas Tech, my pick to win the Big 12, will automatically be viewed more favorably by the selection committee over a one-loss Notre Dame — whose projected lone blemish comes to No. 1 and unbeaten Miami — or a two-loss Georgia.
The only justifiable case for the Red Raiders locking in a top-4 seed comes if they win the Big 12 as an unbeaten. If there’s a loss somewhere in the regular season, that argument has holes when considering strength-of-schedule and strength-of-record metrics relative to others in the mix.
In the Big Ten and SEC, I’m expecting three programs from each conference to make up half of the bracket, including projected league champions Oregon and Georgia.
As for the first team(s) out, UNLV will be a bid-stealer of sorts as an auto-choice for the likes of potential three-loss teams USC, Ole Miss and others. With 11 wins and its only losses coming to Notre Dame in the regular season and Miami in the ACC title game, SMU is the pick right now to be the last team in as the 11-seed over various three-loss Power Four options.
Quarterfinals
| Date | Game / Location | Projection |
|---|---|---|
|
Jan. 1, 2027 |
Peach Bowl |
(1) Miami vs. (8) Ohio State |
|
Dec. 30, 2026 |
Fiesta Bowl |
(2) Oregon vs. (7) Indiana |
|
Jan. 1, 2027 |
Cotton Bowl |
(3) Georgia vs. (6) Texas Tech |
|
Jan. 1, 2027 |
Rose Bowl |
(4) Notre Dame vs. (5) Texas |
Full bowl schedule, projections
Salute to Veterans Bowl
Pool: CUSA, MAC, Sun Belt
Projection: Delaware vs. James Madison
Frisco Football Classic
Pool: CUSA, Sun Belt
Projection: Arkansas State vs. FIU
Boca Raton Bowl
Pool: Group of Six
Projection: Air Force vs. FAU
Puerto Rico Bowl
Pool: MAC, Pac-12 or Group of Six
Projection: Georgia Southern vs. Washington State
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Pool: Group of Six
Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Western Michigan
Frisco Bowl
Pool: Group of Six
Projection: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Cure Bowl
Pool: Group of Six
Projection: South Florida vs. Florida
Gasparilla Bowl
Pool: American, CUSA, ACC/SEC
Projection: South Carolina vs. Virginia
New Orleans Bowl
Pool: CUSA, Sun Belt
Projection: Liberty vs. Old Dominion
Potato Bowl
Pool: MAC, Mountain West
Projection: Toledo vs. North Dakota State
Armed Forces Bowl
Pool: American, CUSA or Big 12
Projection: Memphis vs. Kansas State
Independence Bowl
Pool: American, Big 12, CUSA, former Pac-12
Projection: Tulane vs. West Virginia
New Mexico Bowl
Pool: Mountain West, CUSA or Sun Belt
Projection: Troy vs. Boise State
Hawaii Bowl
Pool: Mountain West, American or CUSA
Projection: East Carolina vs. Hawaii
68Ventures Bowl
Pool: MAC, Sun Belt, CUSA
Projection: Buffalo vs. Jacksonville State
Fenway Bowl
Pool: American, ACC
Projection: Army vs. North Carolina
Pinstripe Bowl
Pool: Big Ten, ACC
Projection: Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh
Mayo Bowl
Pool: ACC, Big Ten or SEC
Projection: Florida State vs. Nebraska
Cactus Bowl
Pool: Big Ten, Big 12
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Arizona State
Military Bowl
Pool: American, ACC
Projection: Navy vs. Georgia Tech
Birmingham Bowl
Pool: American, SEC
Projection: Auburn vs. UTSA
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Pool: ACC, Big 12
Projection: Louisville vs. Houston
Alamo Bowl
Pool: Big 12, former Pac-12
Projection: Utah vs. Washington
Sun Bowl
Pool: Pac-12, ACC
Projection: Arizona vs. NC State
Las Vegas
Pool: Big Ten, former Pac-12
Projection: Illinois vs. California
Texas Bowl
Pool: SEC, Big 12
Projection: TCU vs. Tennessee
First Responder
Pool: Group of Six or ACC
Projection: North Texas vs. Duke
Liberty Bowl
Pool: Big 12, SEC or American
Projection: Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
Holiday Bowl
Pool: ACC, Pac-12
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. USC
Poinsettia Bowl
Pool: MWC, Pac-12
Projection: Kennesaw State vs. UCLA
Arizona Bowl
Pool: MAC, MWC
Projection: Central Michigan vs. Colorado State
Gator Bowl
Pool: SEC, ACC
Projection: Oklahoma vs. Clemson
Music City Bowl
Pool: Big Ten, SEC
Projection: Texas A&M vs. Michigan
ReliaQuest Bowl
Pool: Big Ten, SEC
Projection: Alabama vs. Iowa
Citrus Bowl
Pool: Big Ten, SEC
Projection: Penn State vs. Ole Miss
