Why only these 25 college basketball teams can win the 2027 national championship

Internal development is still important in college basketball, but it’s not the primary lifeblood it once was for many championship-winning college basketball programs. Data suggests that, in the transfer portal era, it’s only becoming harder for teams to win it all without the return of their top scorer or a significant offseason talent infusion. 

Since Villanova cut down the nets in 2018, every college basketball national champion has checked at least one of the following three boxes, in addition to being a high-major NCAA Tournament team from the year before.

— Enrolled a top-20 high school recruiting class
— Enrolled a top-20 transfer class
— Returned their leading scorer

Many of the players a program would have developed incrementally in the past simply leave for more money and/or bigger roles instead of climbing through the hierarchy of a program like players did with Villanova under Jay Wright. Thus, schools with national championship aspirations and a leading scorer to replace are left with little choice but to go big-game hunting in recruiting or through the portal.

Both of Villanova’s titles under Wright (2016 and 2018) were the last to stand in defiance of this trend. In 2016, internally developed stars like Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Ryan Arcidiacono stepped up as the Wildcats won it all after losing leading scorer Darrun Hilliard. A freshman named Jalen Brunson also proved to be a key contributor that season, but Nova’s recruiting class was not a top-20 haul.

Two years later, Brunson replaced Hart as the team’s leading scorer, and a redshirt junior forward named Mikal Bridges enjoyed a breakout season as the Wildcats won their second national title in three seasons without enrolling a top-20 ranked recruiting class.

If we assume the old Villanova way is dead – and it has been since 2018 – that means there are only 25 teams who can win the 2027 national championship based on the criteria mentioned above.

College basketball teams that can win it all in 2027

(Teams listed in alphabetical order)

Alabama | No. 13 recruiting class
Arkansas | No. 1 recruiting class
Duke | No. 2 recruiting class and No. 10 transfer class
Florida | leading scorer back
Houston | No. 16 transfer class
Illinois | No. 6 recruiting class
Kansas | No. 3 recruiting class
Kentucky | No. 3 transfer class
Louisville | No. 1 transfer class and No. 20 recruiting class
Miami (FL) | No. 6 transfer class
Michigan | No. 4 recruiting class and No. 12 transfer class
Michigan State | leading scorer back and No. 5 recruiting c lass
Missouri | No. 14 recruiting class and No. 14 transfer class
Nebraska | leading scorer back
North Carolina | No. 15 recruiting class and No. 7 transfer class
Ohio State | No. 19 recruiting class
Purdue | No. 8 recruiting class
St. John’s | No. 8 transfer class
Tennessee | No. 2 transfer class and No. 17 recruiting class
Texas | No. 4 transfer class and No. 16 recruiting class
Texas A&M | No. 11 transfer class
UConn | No. 17 transfer class
Vanderbilt | leading scorer back
Villanova | leading scorer back and No. 19 transfer class
Virginia | leading scorer back

The Villanova-model candidates

You could call these teams the “Villanova candidates.” They do not have a top-20 recruiting class, a top-20 transfer class or their leading scorer back. Yet, they are big-name programs with expectations of competing at the highest level and recent track records of success to draw upon.

Arizona

Arizona is well-positioned to be the first team since 2018 to follow the Villanova formula. The Wildcats’ recruiting class is ranked 29th, its transfer class ranked 48th and its top three scorers from last season are gone. Yet, Arizona is No. 7 in Gary Parrish’s offseason Top 25 And 1 and came in as a No. 2 seed in the most-recent CBS Sports Bracketology projection.

Why? The Wildcats return a pair of starters in Ivan Kharchenkov and Motiejus Krivas who averaged double figures for a Final Four team. Tommy Lloyd’s club also welcomes No. 3-ranked freshman Caleb Holt, who is a McDonald’s All-American and projected 2027 lottery pick. With Holt leading the way and No. 33-ranked prospect Cameron Holmes entering on the wing, the Wildcats are in line to receive major contributions from their signing class, even though it didn’t finish with top-20 status in the 247Sports team rankings.

As for the portal, Lloyd will be relying on a couple of talented sophomore point guards who transferred in from high-major programs. Derek Dixon (North Carolina) and JJ Mandaquit (Washington) were only viewed as four-star transfers, but they showed ample promise as freshmen and will be plug-and-play ready.

No one is going to look at Arizona and see the best group of returning talent in college basketball. Nor can the Wildcats claim the nation’s sexiest transfer haul or a Duke-level freshman class. But in each of those three realms – retention, high school recruiting and portal additions – Lloyd did excellent strategic work to piece together a well-rounded group that should be in the national title hunt next season.

2. Gonzaga

Leading scorer Graham Ike is out of eligibility, but Braden Huff was already in line to challenge Ike for that title last season before a season-ending knee injury in January. Now, Huff returns for his senior season and will be the focal point of the offense. Sophomore wing Davis Fogle is in for a breakout season, and point guard Mario Saint-Supery is also back after leading the Zags in assists.

In addition to returning the three key rotation players – including a proven star in Huff – the Zags are also welcoming the nation’s No. 25 recruiting class and No. 23 transfer haul. Arizona State transfer Massamba Diop is the headline addition after a standout freshman season in which he ranked second in the Big 12 in blocks at 2.1 per game. If 21-year old forward Izan Almansa gets cleared, the Zags’ frontcourt will be a handful.

3. Iowa State

Stars Tamin Lipsey and Joshua Jefferson used up their eligibility, and Iowa State lost leading scorer Milan Momcilovic to Kentucky. But as coach T.J. Otzelberger enters his sixth season, he’s proven himself to be an elite program builder capable of molding top-15 caliber teams without needing five-star freshmen or expensive transfers. 

Though most of the scoring heft is gone, four rotation players are back, including starters Killyan Toure and Blake Buchanan. Around the returning core, Otzelberger has recruited some offensive firepower from the mid-major ranks and a versatile defensive stopper from Northwestern in Tre Singleton. Given Otzelberger’s track record, it would also be no surprise if the Cyclones get contributions from a three-man freshman class that is light on sizzle but still talented.