Predicting MVP for each AFC team, plus eight teams that need the preseason the most and rookies to watch

Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I hope you’re ready for some preseason football, because starting tonight, the NFL will be giving us 48 games over the next 16 days and I plan on watching every single one. Is that healthy? Probably not, but I can’t worry about my health right now because there’s football to watch.

We’ll be going all in on the preseason today: Not only will be taking a look at the eight teams that need the preseason the most, but I’ll also be giving you one reason why you need to watch each of the six games that will be going on tonight. 

As always, here’s your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let’s get to the rundown. 

1. Eight teams that need preseason the most

If I’ve learned one thing over the years, it’s that some teams need the preseason football more than others. For instance, the Rams always bench their starters in the preseason, so if they go 0-3, that won’t change my opinion about the fact that they’re a Super Bowl contender. However, if the Dolphins go 0-3, I’m just automatically going to assume that they’re going to go winless this year. 

With that in mind, Jordan Dajani decided to take a look around the NFL to see which teams need the preseason the most, and yes, the Dolphins made the list. Here are three teams that better make good use of their three preseason games: 

• Dolphins. The Dolphins don’t have a QB battle, but they do have a new signal-caller in Malik Willis. He flashed starting potential in limited action with the Packers over the last two years, but it was a pretty small sample size. However, he proved he could run Matt LaFleur’s system. Now, Willis is learning a new Bobby Slowik system and does not have the kind of weaponry he benefited from in Green Bay. These preseason reps are essential. 
• Raiders. If the Raiders won’t give Fernando Mendoza immediate regular-season reps, he has to get them in the preseason. Sure, a young quarterback can benefit by sitting and learning behind a veteran like Kirk Cousins, but live game reps are where a player learns the most. This will be his only chance to experience those live reps before he’s thrown into the starting lineup at some point this season.
• Eagles. Nick Sirianni doesn’t typically play starters very much in the preseason, if at all. But could that change this year, since Sean Mannion is introducing a brand-new offense? Mannion is implementing a system that more closely resembles what you would see with Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan. That means more Jalen Hurts under center, and outside zone runs for Saquon Barkley. Hurts needs some action in the preseason, even if it’s limited.

Jordan actually named EIGHT teams that need the preseason and you can see his full list here.

2. Rookies you need to keep an eye on during the preseason

When it comes to the preseason, there are quite a few NFL coaches who will be keeping their veterans on the bench, but there is one group that will see a lot of action over the few weeks and that’s this year’s class of rookies. Whether they were drafted in the first round or signed as undrafted free agents, rookies still have to prove themselves on the field and the first chance they’ll get to do that is in the preseason. 

And now, this is the part where I tell you that Josh Edwards has a list of several rookies you need to keep an eye on during the preseason, including a trio of a receivers who we’ve listed below: 

• Browns WR Denzel Boston (second-round pick). Will the on-field production match the training camp hype? Few rookies have generated as much buzz as Boston to this point. The problem is that the public may not be able to make an accurate assessment of the player’s capabilities catching passes from that quarterback collective in northeast Ohio. 
• Ravens WR Ja’Kobi Lane (third-round pick). Lane has been drawing rave reviews from camp. The coaching staff is different, but Baltimore has been searching for a taller receiver for years. The hope is that Lane can allow them to play above the rim, but also spring Derrick Henry in the run game.
• Chiefs WR Cyrus Allen (fifth-round pick). Allen has been the talk of Chiefs camp; drowning out the concerns of the team declining to add more help for Patrick Mahomes this offseason. The fifth-round pick has the top-end speed and suddenness to be a big-play threat in Kansas City.

Josh’s list includes a total of 10 rookies and if you want to see who else you need to keep a close eye on, then be sure to check out his full story here. 

3. Six preseason games are happening tonight: What to watch for

After getting a small taste of the NFL preseason with the Hall of Fame Game last week, we’re getting an even bigger taste tonight with SIX games on the docket. Here’s one thing you need to watch out for in each game. 

• Lions at Bengals (7 p.m. ET, NFL+). The Bengals will actually be playing their starters tonight, but they won’t be out there for long, so if you want to see Joe Burrow in action, you better make sure to tune in for the first quarter. The most intriguing starter who’s expected to play is Dexter Lawrence, who will be making his Bengals’ debut after getting traded to Cincinnati in a blockbuster deal back in April. For the Lions, you might want to keep an eye on center Seth McLaughlin. The Lions were expecting Cade Mays to start at center this year, but he’s out for 8 to 10 weeks after breaking his wrist, so McLaughlin is likely going to have to step in, but first, he’ll have to prove that he can handle the job. 
• Packers at Steelers (7 p.m. ET, NFL Network). This had the potential to be an Aaron Rodgers revenge game, but right now, it’s unclear if he’s actually going to play (and if he does play, it would likely only be for one series). As for the Packers, Jordan Love and the starters will likely be on the field for a possession or two. One rookie to keep an eye on for Green Bay is kicker Trey Smack. The rookie kicker has struggled at times during training camp and if those struggles carry over into a game situation, the Packers might need to bring in a veteran to compete with him. For the Steelers, Germie Bernard will be one player to watch. Aaron Rodgers recently said the rookie receiver needs to play with more confidence, so we’ll see if that happens tonight. 
• Colts at Patriots (7:30 p.m. ET, NFL+). With Daniel Jones coming off a torn Achilles, the backup QB job is an important one in Indy this year and it will be on full display tonight. Anthony Richardson will be getting the start against the Patriots and he’s expected to play the entire first half (Riley Leonard will get to start the second preseason game). Richardson requested a trade out of Indy this offseason and a solid showing against the Patriots could possibly drum up some interest around the league. 
• Cardinals at Raiders (8 p.m. ET, ESPN Unlimited). Two words: Fernando Mendoza. This might be the must-see game of the night due to the fact that Mendoza will be on the field. Raiders coach Klint Kubiak said this week that Mendoza “will get plenty of reps.” With Kirk Cousins expected to be the Week 1 starter, the preseason might be the only chance we get to see Mendoza for the next few months. 
• Chargers at Texans (8 p.m. ET, NFL+). Jim Harbaugh has said that he’ll be keeping about 15 starters on the bench tonight, so Justin Herbert likely won’t be on the field. However, the Chargers do have a battle going on at left guard that will certainly be worth watching. Herbert spent a good chunk of the 2025 season running for his life due to the struggles of the offensive line, and now. L.A. is trying to improve its line and this battle should help that. Four of the five spots appear to be set on the line for 2026, but left guard is still up in the air with veteran Kayode Awosika battling rookie Jake Slaughter to be the starter. if you see a lot of pressure coming from the left side, that’s not a good sign for the Chargers. 
• Titans at 49ers (9 p.m. ET, NFL Network). It’s not an exaggeration to say that nearly half the 49ers roster is injured right now, so we probably won’t see very many of their starters tonight. However, Robert Saleh is planning on playing his starters, so all eyes should be on the Titans in this game. I’m excited to see what kind of connection rookie receiver Carnell Tate has with Cam Ward. Speaking of Saleh, he’s made a huge change on defense, going from 3-4 scheme last year to a 4-3 this year, so it will be interesting to see how his team is handling that so far. 

These are the only games on tonight, but there will be 16 games happening over the next three days and if you want the full schedule of action, we’ve got that here. (Note: You can watch every preseason game live if you have a subscription to NFL+, but if you don’t, then you’re going to have a tough time watching every game. For instance, the Bengals-Lions game is only available on local TV if you don’t have NFL+.)

4. Predicting the MVP for each AFC team (Non-QB edition)

Earlier this week, we went through and made our MVP prediction for every team in the NFC, and I don’t want the AFC to feel left out, so Tyler Sullian is here to hand out his predictions for that conference today. There is only one rule here and that’s that we can’t pick a team’s QB as the MVP, because that’s too easy. 

What I’m trying to say here is Tyler had to predict one MVP for each team in the AFC and he wasn’t allowed to pick any quarterbacks. Let’s check out what he came up with for three different teams: 

• Bills: WR DJ Moore. The Bills struck a deal with the Chicago Bears to acquire Moore, reuniting him with head coach Joe Brady, who was his offensive coordinator during their shared time with the Panthers (2020-21). Over that stretch, Moore averaged 1,175 receiving yards. If he can provide that level of play with Allen now throwing him the football, it should make Buffalo’s offense that much tougher to defend.
• Steelers: WR Michael Pittman. The Steelers’ acquisition of Michael Pittman Jr. from the Colts is one of those moves that feels forgotten but will be quickly remembered once the regular season kicks off. Pittman is a pivotal answer to the No. 2 receiving question opposite DK Metcalf in Pittsburgh’s offense. Last season, Metcalf led the team with 850 receiving yards. Meanwhile, the other Steelers receivers combined for just 866 yards receiving. Pittman comes in as not only a clear-cut second option for Aaron Rodgers, but the veteran quarterback (who averaged just 6.7 yards per attempt in 2025) could pepper the veteran on shorter routes. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Pittman (who has the sixth-most receptions in the NFL over the last four seasons) lead the Steelers in targets.
• Chiefs: RB Kenneth Walker III Last season, Chiefs running backs ranked in the bottom five of the league in rushing yards, yards per rush, and tackles avoided. Walker should improve the backfield in all of those categories. Having an explosive back at his disposal is when Andy Reid-led offenses are running at their best, and they might have that now with Walker. If they get dependable play on the ground, that only helps Mahomes as he mounts his comeback from injury.

If you want to see the other 13 MVPs in the AFC — and trust me, you do — Sullivan has them here.  

5. NFL’s most optimistic and least optimistic fan bases

 “Hope springs eternal.”

Alexander Pope probably wasn’t talking about the NFL when he wrote that phrase back in 1732, but he might have been, because we are in the one spot on the calendar where hope springs eternal for all 32 fan bases. Actually, I take that back, because it seems that there are several fan bases that don’t have much hope in their team this season. 

There was recently a survey done by Casino.ca to determine which team has the most optimistic fan base heading into the upcoming season and which team has the least optimistic fan base, and let me just say, I was not surprised at all by the results. 

Let’s check out the three most optimistic fan bases (via Bryan DeArdo)

• 1. Chiefs. Despite last year’s 6-11 record, the Chiefs have the most optimistic fan base heading into the 2026 season. Some of that optimism might come from the irrational confidence that comes with winning three Super Bowls and five conference titles in seven years. It is also likely a byproduct of having three surefire Hall of Famers in Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and another likely future Hall of Famer in Chris Jones.
• T-2. Rams. The surprise here is that the Rams fan base isn’t the NFL’s most optimistic entering the 2026 season. The Rams have one of the league’s best coaches in Sean McVay, the reigning league MVP in Matthew Stafford, a dynamic group of skill players that includes Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams, and a defense that includes reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and could also include future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald.
• T-2. Seahawks. The Seahawks look poised to make a valiant defense of their Super Bowl title. They still have one of the league’s better defenses, and their offense will continue to feature Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the NFL’s leader in receiving yards last season.

And now, let’s check out the three most pessimistic fan bases. 

• 30. Titans. The Titans are also ushering in a new era this season that, if nothing else, should give their fan base some level of hope for the future. 
• 31. Browns. Cleveland has only made the playoffs twice since returning to the NFL in 1999. And while no one is predicting a playoff berth in 2026, the Browns should nonetheless be an interesting team to follow given all the moves they made this offseason, which include a new head coach (Todd Monken) and three rookie receivers. 
• 32. Jets. It’s easy to see why Jets fans are probably more excited about tailgating than actual games this season. Since making back-to-back AFC title game appearances (2009-10), Gang Green has toiled through 14 losing seasons and 15 consecutive non-playoff seasons.

If you want to see where your favorite team ranks in terms of optimism, DeArdo has the full list here. 

6. Extra points: Browns finally make a starting QB decision for preseason opener

It’s been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Deshaun Watson will start for the Browns this week. We finally have some clarity about what the Browns’ QB plan is going to look like during the preseason. New coach Todd Monken revealed this week that Deshaun Watson will be the starter on Saturday against the Bears. The expectation is that Shedeur Sanders will then start Cleveland’s second preseason game, which will come on Aug. 22 against the Bills. At some point after that, Monken is expected to make a decision on who will be under center in Week 1 when the Browns face the Jaguars. 
• Tua Tagovailoa to start preseason opener for Falcons. Besides the Browns, the Falcons are the only other team that currently has a QB battle happening and they’ll be rolling with Tua as their starter for their opening preseason game on Friday against the Broncos. This competition is a little different from the one in Cleveland, because one of the quarterbacks — Michael Penix Jr. — hasn’t even been fully cleared to play. That one fact would seem to clear the path for Tua to start in Week 1, but new coach Kevin Stefanski was adamant this week that he hasn’t yet made a decision on who will start the opener against the Steelers. “We are not there (right now) to name a starter for Week 1,” Stefanski said. “We will cross that bridge when we get to it. We feel very good about where Tua is — where all of our guys are — but he will start on Friday night.” If Penix isn’t cleared to take hits, it’s kind of hard to make him the starter, so it certainly feels like Tua is in the driver’s seat right now. 
• Panthers sign former Pro Bowl tight end. Darren Waller is heading to Carolina after agreeing to a one-year deal with the Panthers. The former Pro Bowler came out of retirement last season to sign with the Dolphins and during that stint, he caught six TD passes in just nine games. The move to Carolina makes sense for Waller, because he’ll be reuniting with Panthers associate head coach Darrell Bevell, who served as the passing game coordinator in Miami last season. 
• Jayden Daniels not happy with LSU. The Commanders QB has sent a cease-and-desist letter to his former school, letting them know that they’re no longer allowed to use his name, image and likeness for any reason. Daniels is apparently upset with the fact that LSU decided to let someone wear his number this year. Sophomore cornerback DJ Pickett will be wearing No. 5, which is what Daniels wore during his Heisman winning season in 2023.